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NCAA Tournament 2024 bracket: Advanced simulation predicts surprising upsets, March Madness picks, sleepers

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Vermont has become a seemingly mid-major staple in the NCAA Tournament bracket. In 2005, the Catamounts pulled off the 12 vs. 5 upset against Syracuse. Vermont, making its third straight and 10th overall NCAA Tournament appearance, is the 13 seed for the fourth time over its last five appearances and draws No. 4 Duke in the South Region of the 2024 NCAA bracket. Duke enters on a two-game losing streak, so could this be an upset worth considering for 2024 March Madness bracket picks?

Finding the right double-digit seed to win in the 2024 NCAA Tournament bracket can separate you from others in your 2024 NCAA Tournament pools. Doing so certainly comes with risk since you don’t want to leave points on the board when filling out your 2024 NCAA Tournament bracket picks. If you haven’t been following college basketball closely this season, who are those mid-major teams that are worth backing in your March Madness bracket 2024? Before you make your 2024 NCAA Tournament predictions, see the March Madness bracket picks from the proven computer model at SportsLine.

This model, which simulates every game 10,000 times, has nailed 20 first-round upsets by double-digit seeds since its inception in 2016 and nailed UConn’s dramatic Final Four run as a 4-seed last year. It went an amazing 22-10 in the first round, including an astounding 12-4 in the Midwest and West regions.

Last year, SportsLine’s computer simulation nailed massive upsets, including huge wins by No. 13 Furman over No. 4 Virginia and No. 10 Penn State over No. 7 Texas A&M. The model has beaten over 92% of all CBS Sports bracket players in three of the past five tournaments.

Now, SportsLine’s advanced computer model has simulated the entire 2024 NCAA Tournament 10,000 times to come up with the perfect 2024 NCAA Tournament bracket and find out which teams will pull off the biggest upsets. You shouldn’t even think about making a pick without seeing what their model has to say.

Top 2024 March Madness bracket upset picks

One Midwest Region surprise the model has identified: No. 11 Oregon knocks off No. 6 South Carolina. Oregon’s quest to the championship in the Pac-12 Tournament included knocking off Arizona, a No. 2 seed in the NCAA Tournament bracket 2024, before defeating Colorado in the Pac-12 final. Oregon defeated the No. 1, No. 3 and No. 4 seed in the Pac-12 en route to winning the conference crown.

N’Faly Dante, a senior 6-foot-11 center in his fifth year at Oregon, was dominant in the Pac-12 final. He went 12-for-12 from the field with 25 points, nine rebounds and three steals in the 75-68 victory over Colorado. He’s shooting 70.2% on the season, including 70% or better in his last six games. South Carolina is coming off a 31-point loss to Auburn in the SEC Tournament quarterfinals and 6-foot-10 Johni Broome had 18 points and 10 rebounds over 25 minutes for Auburn.

Another Midwest Region surprise the model has identified: No. 5 Gonzaga beats No. 4 Kansas in the second round. These are two of the dominant programs in college basketball since the turn of the century. However, the two programs are having a down year by their high standards and the model projects the two to face during the opening weekend. Gonzaga has reached at least the Sweet 16 in eight straight NCAA Tournaments, including making the Elite Eight last year.

Kansas enters the 2024 NCAA Tournament bracket dealing with significant injuries. Hunter Dickson (shoulder) and Kevin McCullar Jr. (bone bruise) each missed the Big 12 Tournament, which led to an early Kansas exit in a 20-point loss to Cincinnati in the second round. The Jayhawks have lost four of their last five contests and even if their injured players can play this weekend, they likely won’t be 100%. Gonzaga went 25-7, winning 25 games for the 17th straight season, and even in a “down” year for the Bulldogs, this is an upset worth placing into your 2024 March Madness bracket picks. See which other 2024 March Madness matchups to target here.

How to make 2024 NCAA Tournament bracket predictions

Who wins every tournament-defining matchup? And which teams will make surprising runs through the 2024 NCAA Tournament bracket? With the model’s track record of calling bracket-busting upsets, you’ll want to see which stunners it’s calling this year before locking in any 2024 NCAA bracket picks.

So what’s the optimal NCAA Tournament 2024 bracket? And which NCAA Tournament Cinderella teams will shock college basketball? Visit SportsLine to see which 12-seed reaches the Sweet 16, and which region features a 10-seed, 11-seed, and 13-seed delivering first-round shockers and has a 9-seed in the Elite Eight, all from the model that has beaten 92% of bracket players three of the last five tournaments.



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