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Thirty-four states, plus Washington D.C., had teams that secured bids to the 2024 NCAA Tournament bracket, but none had more than the half-dozen by the state of Texas. Houston is a No. 1 seed, while Texas Tech, Baylor, Texas A&M, TCU and Texas are all in the 2024 March Madness bracket as well. No other state has more than four teams, giving the Longhorn State, statistically, the best chance at having one of its teams cutting down the nets come April 8.
Despite being the second-most populous state in the nation, Texas has produced just two national champions all-time. Houston stands out, as no program has more Final Four appearances (six) without a national title. After missing out on the Big 12 tournament championship in their first season in the conference, can the Cougars make amends with a title in the 2024 NCAA bracket instead? Before you make your 2024 NCAA Tournament predictions, see the March Madness bracket picks from the proven computer model at SportsLine.
This model, which simulates every game 10,000 times, has nailed 20 first-round upsets by double-digit seeds since its inception in 2016 and nailed UConn’s dramatic Final Four run as a 4-seed last year. It went an amazing 22-10 in the first round, including an astounding 12-4 in the Midwest and West regions.
Last year, SportsLine’s computer simulation nailed massive upsets, including huge wins by No. 13 Furman over No. 4 Virginia and No. 10 Penn State over No. 7 Texas A&M. The model has beaten over 92% of all CBS Sports bracket players in three of the past five tournaments.
Now, SportsLine’s advanced computer model has simulated the entire 2024 NCAA Tournament 10,000 times to come up with the perfect 2024 NCAA Tournament bracket and find out which teams will pull off the biggest upsets. You shouldn’t even think about making a pick without seeing what their model has to say.
Top 2024 March Madness bracket upset picks
One Midwest Region surprise the model has identified: No. 11 seed Oregon knocks off No. 6 South Carolina in the first round. When the Ducks make the NCAA Tournament, they usually stick around for a while since they’ve made it to at least the Sweet 16 in their last four appearances. They are 6-0 in the first round since 2013, winning those contests by an average margin of 18.5 points. This season, Oregon also showed it can win close games, as no team has more single-digit victories than Oregon’s 14.
Oregon enters on a four-game win streak after claiming the Pac-12 Tournament and is averaging 75.3 points for the season. Meanwhile, the Gamecocks are just 3-5 when allowing at least 70 points and few teams are as passive defensively as South Carolina. It ranks 340th out of 362 Division I teams in turnovers forced per game, and Carolina also has a negative scoring margin in five neutral-site games this season.
Another Midwest Region surprise the model has identified: No. 3 Creighton defeats 2-seed Tennessee and 1-seed Purdue on its way to the Final Four. A common saying in basketball is that you can’t teach size, and the Bluejays have that in 7-footer Ryan Kalkbrenner. He’s a three-time Big East Defensive Player of the Year who’s also averaging 17.1 points on the other end. He’s surrounded by elite shooters, as just five teams in the nation make more 3-pointers per game than Creighton.
Creighton could match up with No. 2 Tennessee in the Sweet Sixteen, and the Vols’ last five NCAA Tournament losses have been to teams seeded worse than them. If Creighton were to advance, then it could face No. 1 Purdue in the Elite Eight, and the Boilermakers aren’t playing their best ball entering the NCAA Tournament 2024. Their average margin of victory has decreased every month of the season and they allowed 9.5 made 3-pointers per game in their four losses this year. Creighton is averaging 11.1 made 3-pointers over its last 10 games, and the model likes its chances of reaching its first Final Four. See which other 2024 March Madness matchups to target here.
How to make 2024 NCAA Tournament bracket predictions
Who wins every tournament-defining matchup? And which teams will make surprising runs through the 2024 NCAA Tournament bracket? With the model’s track record of calling bracket-busting upsets, you’ll want to see which stunners it’s calling this year before locking in any 2024 NCAA bracket picks.
So what’s the optimal NCAA Tournament 2024 bracket? And which NCAA Tournament Cinderella teams will shock college basketball? Visit SportsLine to see which 12-seed reaches the Sweet 16, and which region features a 10-seed, 11-seed, and 13-seed delivering first-round shockers and has a 9-seed in the Elite Eight, all from the model that has beaten 92% of bracket players three of the last five tournaments.
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