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COLUMBUS, Ohio — Donald Trump’s name is not on the ballot Tuesday in Ohio’s Republican Senate primary.
But his clout is very much on the line.
The former president and presumptive 2024 Republican presidential nominee endorsed Bernie Moreno, a former car dealer and blockchain entrepreneur, in a race that the campaigns treated as a toss-up in the closing days. Recent polling has shown a dead heat between Moreno and state Sen. Matt Dolan, whom Trump attacked as a “RINO” — or Republican in name only — at a rally Saturday near Dayton.
Ohio Secretary of State Frank LaRose is also seeking the nomination but has lacked the resources to run a robust ad campaign or attract big-name endorsements that have gone to Dolan and Moreno.
South Dakota Gov. Kristi Noem, Arizona Senate candidate Kari Lake and Sen. JD Vance, who won a nasty primary here two years ago with Trump’s backing, were among those who crisscrossed the state for Moreno down the stretch.
Dolan received assists from two Trump-cautious Republicans — Gov. Mike DeWine and former Sen. Rob Portman — setting up a clash between Trump’s ever-insurgent MAGA movement and the protectors of Ohio’s old-guard establishment.
But even some of Trump’s hardcore supporters are behind Dolan.
“I’m a Trumper. … I’m hoping people give Dolan a chance,” East Palestine Mayor Trent Conaway told NBC News, adding that Dolan offered assistance after the train derailment and toxic chemical release in his village last year. “It’s nothing against President Trump. I’ve supported President Trump since his first run for office, and I will support him until the day I die.”
The winner Tuesday will face Sen. Sherrod Brown — who is unopposed in the Democratic primary — in a contest that will help determine control of the Senate. Brown is one of two Democratic incumbents, along with Sen. Jon Tester of Montana, up for re-election in states that Trump twice won by wide margins. Both parties plan to spend heavily on the Ohio race this fall.
The often hostile vibes of the GOP primary have underscored the high stakes in November. Polls close at 7:30 p.m. ET.
“This is the last gasp of breath of the swamp RINO establishment in Ohio,” Moreno said at Saturday’s rally with Trump. “And I need you on Tuesday to stab it right in the heart and make it clear that in Ohio, we put America first. We don’t put the interests of foreign countries first.”
Trump’s last-minute visit — a source close to him told NBC News the week before that having the former president attend a rally for Moreno was “highly unlikely” — illustrated how tightly Moreno’s political fate is tied to Trump. Moreno featured him in ads even before Trump was officially on board.
One spot that aired repeatedly late last year included a clip of Trump praising Moreno to right-wing activists: “We love Ohio,” Trump told the crowd, “and we love Bernie Moreno.”
That strategy required only minor adjustments once Trump issued his formal endorsement in December. His support helped elevate Moreno, who aside from a brief Senate run in 2022 was not familiar to voters, and put him on more equal footing with Dolan and LaRose. Moreno also self-funded a sizable portion of his TV-heavy campaign, loaning $4.2 million to the effort.
But polling in the closing days showed Moreno essentially tied with Dolan, whose family became wealthy in the cable television industry and owns Cleveland’s Major League Baseball franchise.
Dolan put in $10 million of his own money, underwriting an aggressive advertising push that allowed him to define himself and his policy agenda earlier and more often than his opponents could. He maintained a political distance from Trump, presenting himself as a champion of “Trump policies” while insisting the former president’s personality “is not me.”
Triggered by Dolan’s surge, a Democratic PAC tied to Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer launched a $3 million ad blitz aimed at boosting Moreno by promoting his conservative credentials and Trump’s endorsement. The meddling reflected Dolan’s potential general election strength — he is familiar to voters in heavily Democratic Cuyahoga County, where Brown must run up the score to win in November.
“Losing is never worth it,” Dolan said Sunday in an interview with NBC News, after pouring pints for St. Patrick’s Day revelers at a bar in Willoughby, a suburb east of Cleveland. “But I do believe that in our Republican primary that I have the right message, and you need the resources to get it out. You have to be willing to sacrifice your time, treasure and talent, particularly when I go around the state asking others for their time, treasure and talent.”
LaRose entered the primary with the highest name recognition, having won two statewide elections. But the self-proclaimed “thousandaire” lacked the financial resources available to Dolan and Moreno. His campaign couldn’t afford TV ads, relying instead on an allied super PAC that mostly attacked Moreno in recent weeks. LaRose spent the last days of the race believing that the many undecided voters showing up in the polls would break for the candidate they knew best on Election Day.
At a Columbiana County GOP dinner last week, while a lounge singer performed a smoldering version of Roberta Flack’s “Killing Me Softly With His Song,” an elderly woman wrapped LaRose in a long embrace near the bar as he approached to refill his coffee.
“This thing is a jump ball in so many ways,” LaRose told reporters after the dinner.
The seeds of this race were planted in the state’s 2022 Senate primary, won by Vance. Moreno was briefly a candidate then, but dropped out after meeting with Trump and realizing he was not likely to earn his endorsement. Dolan ran that year, too — the only GOP contender who didn’t overtly audition for Trump’s backing. Trump, worried that a well-funded but disloyal candidate could emerge from a crowded field by winning a small plurality of the vote, roasted Dolan over his family’s rebranding of the Cleveland Indians into the Guardians.
Moreno followed Trump’s lead and endorsed Vance. So did LaRose, who scored Trump’s endorsement for his secretary of state re-election campaign the same day he declared his support for Vance. Dolan, thanks in part to how little he was attacked in TV ads, finished in a relatively strong third place in the seven-way contest.
The attacks on Dolan started late again this year, reflecting doubts that a candidate known for his Trump ambivalence could win a GOP primary. But Moreno and his allies began piling on in earnest this month, as polls dispelled that thinking. At Saturday’s rally, Trump rekindled his criticism of the Guardians change and characterized Dolan as a Mitt Romney wannabe — a pointed attack, given the Utah senator’s quite public loathing of the former president.
“You gotta win, Bernie,” Trump said at another point in the rally, giving voice to the possibility of a Moreno loss embarrassing him. “Don’t leave me alone. Don’t leave me alone, Bernie.”
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